1、61-04238-02-02b.ppt - 51 - Scenario approach and methodology in four steps towards 3 consistent scenarios Identification of uncertain parameters Liberalization policy Environmental issues Nuclear policy (Germany) Strategic behavior of players (pricing, capacity closures) Gas prices development Coal
2、prices development . Clustering of parameters to scenario drivers Fuel price development (parameters C1-C4) Market frame (parameters A1-A4) (parameters B1-B4) Scenario drivers Strategic behavior of players Combination of scenario drivers and selection of relevant scenarios S1 Market frameStrategic b
3、ehavior Fuel price development Moderate changeBreak the rulesHigh prices Moderate changeFriendly cooperationLow prices S2Free marketBreak the rulesHigh prices S3Free marketFriendly cooperationLow prices Development of consistent sets of parameter combinations Moderate change A A1 A2 A3 DriversParame
4、ters Moderate change Free market B B1 B2 B3 Break the rules Friendly cooperation C C1 C2 C3 High prices Low prices 1.2. 4.3. MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt - 52 - Important parameters clustered to three scenario drivers reflecting the key uncertainties Fuel price development Strategic behavior of players
5、 Market frame CB A C1 Gas prices C2 Coal prices C3 Prices for lignite A1 Liberalization policy A2 New environmental driven taxes A3 Environmental issues B1 Strategic behavior of major generators B2 Strategic behavior of end users (especially large customers) B3 Strategic behavior of new entrants A4
6、Nuclear policy A5 Liquidity of power exchange A6 Cross-border transaction prices Scenario drivers 2. MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt - 53 - Liberalization policy Stepwise market opening with accordance to actual legal framework No further exchanges Nuclear policy (Germany) Full market opening latest in 20
7、03 (France / Belgium in 2005) Power exchanges in each country New environmental driven taxes Environmental issues Liquidity of power exchanges Cross-border transmission charges Total gross utilization time of less than 30 years First plant decommissioned before 2002 Total net utilization time of mor
8、e than 35 years EU - CO2 tax No additional taxes Introduction of environmental standards (minimum plant efficiencies), promotion of renewables No changes Slow increase of German exchanges Fast increasing liquidity on existing and new exchanges Two consistent sets of parameter combinations for each s
9、cenario driver (1) - Outcomes of the scenario driver market frame - Political drivenFree market High prices Large impact of possible grid congestion Very low prices Little impact of possible grid congestion 3. MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt - 54 - Two consistent sets of parameter combinations for each scenario driver (2) - Outcomes of the scenario driver strategic behavior - Strategic behavior of generators Aggr琀爀愀渀猀瀀漀爀琀愀琀椀漀渀氀椀渀攀猀甀爀愀戀氀攀最漀漀搀猀爀攀琀愀椀氀椀渀最椀渀爀甀爀愀氀愀爀攀愀眀椀氀氀搀攀瘀攀氀漀瀀昀愀猀琀攀爀昀漀爀栀椀最栀攀昀昀椀挀椀攀渀琀氀漀
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