1、我国粮食进口市场依赖程度分析摘 要中国是一个人口大国，我国政府非常重视国家的粮食安全问题，一直坚持“粮食以自给自足为主、进出口为辅”的工作方针。改革开放之前，政府解决粮食问题的基本方式是利用国内资源提高粮食产量。但是，随着改革开放步伐的不断加快，我国的粮食生产状况和国际贸易环境发生了很大变化。我国的粮食进口量不断增加，对国际粮食市场的依赖度随之增加，这在满足国内粮食需求的同时，也对我国粮食安全产生了较大的影响。国内的粮食问题往往会引发一系列的社会问题，中国政府必须要坚持国内粮食基本自给自足，而不是过度依赖于进口粮食来满足国内的粮食需求。2008 年世界发生了粮食危机，很多国家和地区都出现“粮食
2、动乱”，有的国家和地区甚至造成政治动乱。2012 年以来，全球不断发生的自然灾害造成很多粮食生产国粮食产量大幅降低，国际粮食市场上的粮食价格十分不稳定，对很多依靠粮食进口的国家和地区的社会稳定造成了很大影响。这些事件告诉我们，粮食安全对于我国经济社会的发展十分重要。因此，我们有必要深入研究当前中国粮食市场的现状，分析粮食进口量增加的成因及对我国经济的影响，探寻有效的解决措施，尽力化解粮食进口量增加给我国带来的风险。本论文拟结合世界经济、产业经济、价格学、投资经济等相关理论，以经济全球化为大背景，从维护国家粮食安全和国家经济长期稳定健康发展的高度出发，以现有的理论成果为研究基点，以国外有关农业政
3、策为借鉴，结合我国农业生产及经济发展的现状，对我国粮食进口的成因进行分析；并对其可能对我国相关产业造成的影响进行全面而客观的判断；以粮食生产的科学发展和可持续发展为出发点，深入探讨化解粮食进口对我国影响的相关制度安排和政策建议。关键词：粮食进口量，进口增加，粮食补贴The degree of dependence on imports of Chinas grain marketAbstractChinese is a country with a large population, the Chinese government attaches great importance to foo
4、d security of the country, always adhere to the grainThe main import and export food to provide for oneself, supplemented by the principle of . Before the reform and opening up, the basic way to solve the food problem of the government is to increase food production and utilization of domestic resou
5、rces. However, with the accelerating pace of reform and opening up, great changes have taken place in Chinas grain production and international trade environment. Chinas grain imports continue to increase, rely on the international grain market increases, which meet the domestic demand for food at t
6、he same time, also has a greater impact on food security in china. The food problem will often lead to a series of social problems, China government must adhere to domestic food rather than over reliance on basic provide for oneself, to import grain to meet the domestic demand for food. The world fo
7、od crisis in 2008, many countries and regions have appeared food riots, some countries and regions and even cause political unrest. Since 2012, the global natural disasters continue to cause a lot of food production in food production is greatly reduced, the international grain market prices is not
8、stable, has a great influence on many rely on social stability food importing countries and regions. These events tell us, food safety is very important for Chinas economic and social development. Therefore, it is necessary for us to study the current status Chinese grain market in-depth, analysis o
9、f the causes of food imports increased and the impact on Chinas economy, to explore the effective measures to resolve the risk, increase food imports to china.This paper intends to combine the world economy, industrial economy, price, investment and other related theories, based on economicGlobaliza
10、tion as the background, from the maintenance of national food security and national economy long-term stable and healthy development perspective, with the existing theoretical results as the starting point, to the agricultural policy in foreign countries for reference, combined with the status quo o
11、f Chinas agricultural production and economic development, analyze the causes of Chinas grain imports; and to conduct a comprehensive and objective the judgment of the potential impacts on related industries in China; with the scientific development and sustainable development of grain production as
12、 the starting point, in-depth discussion of relevant institutional arrangements to resolve the food import impact on China and policy suggestions.Keywords: grain imports, imports increased, grain subsidy目 录一、选题背景1二、我国粮食进口量增加导致的风险1（一）我国粮食生产和供需现状1（二）粮食进口量增加对我国宏观经济的影响21、粮食的价格是其他商品价格的基础22、世界粮食价格将持续处于上涨趋
13、势之中23、警惕国际粮价波动将影响国内物价的稳定3（三）粮食进口量的增加对我国农业的影响41、缺少农产品定价的话语权42、粮食全产业链受到外企的冲击4（四）粮食供应事关国家安全5三、我国粮食进口量增加的成因6（一）我国对粮食需求的刚性增长是粮食进口量增加的主要原因6（二）我国的粮食供应增长逐步减缓导致粮食进口量增加61、有效耕地减少，质量下降62、农业基础设施老化、建设滞后6（三）国际市场粮价的变动推动了我国粮食进口71、国家主动进口N盺愀笀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀褀硸亢/Mg前台访问/p-2649043.html54.36.148.2300N%最瀀栀琀洀氀謀亣辣/Mg前台访问/p-2334
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15、刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀需尀亯/Me前台访问/p-1285005.html54.36.149.670N%匀焀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀餀亱5Sqwap前台访问/p-2778290.html110.249.201.1610N最蔀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀鬀亲/Mk前台访问/p-2592105.html220.181.108.1710N匀漀眀愀瀀瀀栀琀洀氀鴀搀亶梣/Mg前台访问/p-1286248.html54.36.148.1090N%攀瀀栀琀洀氀鼀婒摻亶/G_前台访问/d-4204.html66.249.79.240N最蔀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀亻璲5gwap前台访问/BookRead.asp
16、x?id=1268050111.206.198.510N%最瀀栀琀洀氀婒汻亽棒/Mg前台访问/p-2795160.html116.179.32.160勈筚N盺猀攀愀爀挀栀栀琀洀氀瀀愀洀瀀焀攀戀攀挀攀挀戀愀攀戀戀攀攀攀戀戀攀婒须亾棒/Me前台访问/d-1486170.html207.46.13.870N匀漀猀椀琀攀洀愀瀀栀琀洀氀亿/Mi前台访问/p-1601907.html123.183.224.650N%挀瀀栀琀洀氀劲什/前台访问/tag/chuanranbinghulixuezhongdian.html114.38.104.1260N%掠删攀瀀栀琀洀氀什5Sqwap前台访问/p-259210
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19、N%掠删最瀀栀琀洀氀仗5Sqwap前台访问/p-2791593.html111.225.148.1040勈筚N錣伀椀猀椀琀攀洀愀瀀栀琀洀氀怃缀悫付5gwap前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=2791593111.225.148.1040N%掠删最搀栀琀洀氀仛/Mk前台访问/p-2799576.html123.183.224.1720N%匀焀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀桸仟/Mk前台访问/p-1626844.html123.183.224.1740N%掠删最瀀栀琀洀氀怃缀梫仟5gwap前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=2791255220.243.135.90N%掠删攀瀀栀琀洀氀鑸仠/I
20、g前台访问/p-50673.html123.183.224.170N最茀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀令/Kg前台访问/d-212230.html46.229.168.1630砪N铰最瀀栀琀洀氀以5Smwap前台访问/p-2787960.html220.243.136.60N%掠删最瀀栀琀洀氀鰀仧5Sqwap前台访问/p-2740386.html220.181.108.1790勈筚N最搀栀琀洀氀怃缀仨5gwap前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=2787960220.243.136.60N最茀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀仩梣/Ki前台访问/p-911734.html220.181
21、.108.1090N%匀洀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀砀仭梣/Mi前台访问/p-2286417.html46.229.168.1300N%掠删最瀀栀琀洀氀仯/Mi前台访问/p-2758780.html220.181.108.990N匀漀眀愀瀀瀀栀琀洀氀怃缀仲5gwap前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=2791588111.225.148.750N%掠删椀瀀栀琀洀氀耀仴/Mk前台访问/p-2584894.html220.181.108.1690N匀漀眀愀瀀瀀栀琀洀氀仵/Me前台访问/p-2665544.html54.36.148.710N%攀瀀栀琀洀氀怃缀件5gwap前台访问/BookRead.a
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23、份/Ic前台访问/p-32179.html203.208.60.520，N%掠删欀搀栀琀洀氀伀梣/Me前台访问/d-1717898.html207.46.13.790勈筚8O攀猀椀琀攀洀愀瀀栀琀洀氀婒摻企網/Mg前台访问/d-2584894.html116.179.32.350O%攀瀀栀琀洀氀伃/Mg前台访问/p-2659345.html54.36.148.2120祯O崀礀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀伄5Sqwap前台访问/p-2584894.html220.181.108.1040O最茀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀伇/Me前台访问/p-2108573.html40.77.167.810O%
24、儀洀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀頀伉/Me前台访问/p-2665550.html54.36.148.100晣O匀漀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀婒伋5Sqwap前台访问/p-2787116.html111.225.148.1000O%掠删攀瀀栀琀洀氀伎/Mi前台访问/p-1691734.html123.183.224.640O%匀漀眀愀瀀搀栀琀洀氀伐/Ia前台访问/p-46807.html54.36.148.300O%最瀀栀琀洀氀休5Sqwap前台访问/p-2794846.html220.181.108.1680O%掠删欀瀀栀琀洀氀怃缀伔5gwap前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=2787116111.225
25、.148.1000O%椀瀀栀琀洀氀簀伖梣/Mi前台访问/d-2773850.html116.179.32.1300O匀焀眀愀瀀瀀栀琀洀氀簀伖梣/Mg前台访问/p-2721931.html54.36.148.2120O最蔀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀众/a前台访问/BookRead.aspx?id=281994342.239.240.1500砪O哰椀瀀栀琀洀氀婒优/Ic前台访问/c-00001.html106.104.72.530O%掠删椀搀栀琀洀氀舃葸伝/Sm前台访问/c-0001800001.html122.51.101.170O攀瀀栀琀洀氀濓伟/E前台访问/i-300.html54.3
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27、/p-794806.html66.249.68.480勈筚O脀鬀琀愀最搀愀最漀渀最爀攀渀最漀渀最稀栀椀渀攀渀最氀椀砀椀愀渀稀甀漀礀攀栀琀洀氀婒伦5Sowap前台访问/d-2794005.html116.179.32.2280O%最瀀栀琀洀氀伩/Mk前台访问/d-2797749.html220.181.108.1230O椀瀀栀琀洀氀婒桻伪/Ig前台访问/d-31106.html123.183.224.1740祯O崀渀栀琀洀氀伭偔/Ig前台访问/p-84941.html123.183.224.1700O%最瀀栀琀洀氀伭5Smwap前台访问/p-2588585.html116.179.32.400O
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30、瀀瀀栀琀洀氀婒呻伾/Mk前台访问/p-1624500.html220.181.108.1170O最茀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀佀梣5Smwap前台访问/d-2794572.html116.179.32.970O%攀瀀栀琀洀氀尀佅5Qowap前台访问/p-598128.html220.181.108.1010砪O崀椀栀琀洀氀婒衻但棒/Qi前台访问/sitemap-160.html121.8.38.1310勈筚O夀栀栀琀洀氀佇/Mi前台访问/p-2591332.html116.179.32.1970O攀脀眀愀瀀漀漀欀刀攀愀搀愀猀瀀砀椀搀佇/Me前台访问/p-1510078.html40.77.167.810O匀漀眀愀瀀瀀栀琀洀氀
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