新顾问入门(一)-我们如何开展项目.ppt
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1、 1 Suite 4310, Jardine House One Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong Tel +852 2973 5311 Fax +852 2295 3979 LATITUDE CAPITAL GROUP .hk Suite 11J, Oriental Kenzo Plaza 48 Dongzhimen Wai Avenue, Beijing100027, China Tel +86 (10) 8447 7398 Fax +86 (10) 8447 7396 LCG MARKET PERSPECTIVES Mobile Services S
2、ector Review July 2003 Chinas Mobile Services Revolution MARKET OVERVIEW Explosive Mobile Subscriber Growth Chinas mobile communications market has grown dramati- cally in the past decade. In 2002, Chinas mobile subscriber base surpassed 207 million to become the largest mobile service market in the
3、 world. Currently, China continues to add approximately 4 million new mobile users each month. The rapid adoption of mobile communications has exceeded even the Ministry of Information and Industrys (MII) own internal estimates. Largest Mobile User Base in the World and Still Growing 0 100 200 300 4
4、00 20022003E2004E2005E2006E (Million of Users) Source: 2002 figure from MII 2003-2006 figures from IDC Mobile Penetration Still Low Relative to Major Markets 0 20 40 60 80 100 ChinaU.S.GermanyJapanSingaporeHong Kong (%) Source: Goldman Sachs, International Telecom Union and EMC Subscriber Growth Is
5、Driving Data Services As a result of the growth in prepaid subscribers and overall penetration of lower income users, average revenue per user (ARPU) has been declining. China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) and China Unicom (NYSE: CHU), the nations top two mobile operators, have undertaken a number of new initi
6、atives to promote mobile data services to drive ARPU and reduce dependence on pure voice traffic. Such initiatives have led to the dramatic growth of the short messaging services (SMS) market, which increased four-fold in 2002. The pace of SMS growth in the past year has dramatically transformed Chi
7、nas mobile landscape and underscored the importance of data services to mobile operators. SMS Market Takes Off 0 20 40 60 80 100 20012002 (billion) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 (US$ billion) SMS Sent by China Mobile Subscribers (Left) SMS Revenue to China Mobile (Right)* Source: China Mobile * US$0.012 (Rmb0
8、.10) per SMS (Rmb8.27/US$1.00) Although point-to-point (P2P) SMS constitutes a reported 70%-80% of total SMS traffic and is the major driver for SMS growth to date, both major mobile operators have launched information services based on the i-Mode revenue sharing business model pioneered by NTT DoCo
9、Mo in Japan to drive value-added data services. China Mobiles data services initiative is called “Monternet” and China Unicoms is known as “Uni-Info”. In 2002, service providers (“SPs”) revenue accounted for 15.6% of total mobile revenue, up from 7.9% in 2001. SP revenue is anticipated to constitute
10、 an increasingly important revenue segment as more value-added services become available in the 2.5G/3G era. According to China Mobiles own projections, data related revenues will account for approximately 8% of China Mobiles revenue by 2005. SMS (and MMS) Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue 0.
11、0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 200120022003E2004E2005E China MobileChina Unicom Source: Company data and industry research Monternet and Uni-Info Initiatives In February 1999, NTT DoCoMo launched a new and truly groundbreaking mobile data service in Japan, i-Mode. By 2001, DoCoMos i-Mode service had a
12、lready surpassed 30 million users. 2 Suite 4310, Jardine House One Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong Tel +852 2973 5311 Fax +852 2295 3979 LATITUDE CAPITAL GROUP .hk Suite 11J, Oriental Kenzo Plaza 48 Dongzhimen Wai Avenue, Beijing100027, China Tel +86 (10) 8447 7398 Fax +86 (10) 8447 7396 LCG MAR
13、KET PERSPECTIVES Mobile Services Sector Review Following the lead of DoCoMos i-Mode success, China Mobile launched its own version of i-Mode in China under the Monternet brand name in February 2001. China Unicom followed shortly thereafter with the launch of its proprietary mobile data service, Uni-
14、Info, in October 2001. Like DoCoMo, China Mobiles Monternet and China Unicoms Uni-Info mobile data service initiatives have spawned the development of an entire industry of SPs. These SPs focus on developing and marketing mobile content and related services over China Mobiles and China Unicoms netwo
15、rks. Monternet and Uni-Info Snapshot Operator China Mobile China Unicom Date Launched February 2001 October 2001 Service Providers Over 400 SPs Less than 100 SPs Revenue Sharing Structure 15% commission as portion of SPs revenues and nominal network charge 12% commission as portion of SPs revenues a
16、nd nominal network charge VAS Messages Sent 2.5bn messages sent in 2001 11bn messages sent in 2002 300mn messages sent in 2001 4bn messages sent in 2002 Source: China Mobile Rmb0.15/ message for pre-paid subscribers Monternet and Uni-Info Successful revenue model has spawned the development of an en
17、tire industry focused on providing third party content and services VAS Apart from P2P SMS, the rapid growth of the mobile VAS data market has been driven by three main areas: (i) info- tainment, (ii) community, and (iii) games & entertainment. Key VAS Content Infotainment Community Games & Entertai
18、nment Ringtones Chat Trivia Icons User Groups Adventure Screensavers Interest Groups Pet News/Weather Dating Battle Games Horoscope IQ Quiz COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE The mobile services industry currently can be broken down into two major groups of companies (i) major public listed Internet portals and
19、(ii) pure play mobile service providers. Public Listed China Portals 2002 Reg. Users 70 mn 67 mn 83 mn 10 mn 2002 Revenue $39 mn $29 mn $32 mn $203 mn Estimate * Internet-related revenues account for 16% of Ts total revenue * As of June 18, 2003 Impressive Revenue Growth by the Publicly-Listed China
20、 Portals 0 20 40 60 80 2000200120022003 LQA (US$ million) NeteaseSohuSina Note: LQA = (1Q2003 Revenue annualized) According to China Business, 30 SPs surpassed US$3 million in revenues in 2002. We have listed below the major private players in the mobile service provider market. Top Private Mobile S
21、ervice Providers in China Pure Play Mobile SPs Website Info- tainment Games & Entertainment Community MARKET VALUATIONS The meteoric rise of China portal shares this year has largely been driven by strong sales in wireless services. Year-to-date 2003, Sohu, Netease and Sinas share prices have risen
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