某咨询给医药行业的报告.pptx
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1、McKinsey was commissioned in Q1, 2003 to:provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market;4 product categories were included: G.I. (Motilium), OBGY (Gyno.), Nail I
2、nfection (Sporanox) & Vertigo (Sibelium)provide objective assessment about the broad market opportunity (not including any urban centres);provide business model / proposal for XJP to capture the broad marketMcKinsey Broad Market Study Process Project design (Q1, 2003) Project review with local and r
3、egional J-C team (Apr. 03) Survey market selection (Apr. 03) Field work in 2 cities in Shandong (May 03) 1st interim report (mid-June 03) Field work in 2 cities in Sichuan (mid-June mid-July 03) 2nd interim report and Killer Idea workshop (end July 03) Final report (Aug. 03) Presentation to corporat
4、e management (Sept. 03)BROAD MARKET CAN BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL HEALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY LEVEL AND BELOWRegional cityCountyTown VillageClass 3 hospitalClass 2 & below hospitalPharmacy Clinic Broad marketSource: McKinsey analysisBROAD MARKET
5、 DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND “OUT PATIENT” Rx DRUGSSource: McKinsey analysisTargeting easily diagnosed, non-life threatening diseasesEasy to useRelatively cheapRelatively safe with few side effectExamplesOTCMatureNewMotiliumGyno-DaktarinRxOutpatientIn-hospitalSporanox / SibeliumCipramilBroad market drugsM
6、cKinsey Key FindingsOverall Market SituationBROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94% OF OVERALL DEMAND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGSClass 3 hospitalBroad market drug sales breakdown by geographyPercent *For only 2 according cities*Data for only Sichuan provinceSource:Interview with distributors, hospitals, pharmacies &
7、 clinics; McKinsey analysisAll 4 citiesBroad market represents 94% of demand100%=3.62.31.3Bn RMBShandong* Sichuan*City 100%=2162Mn RMB County Town Village Motilium Gyno- DaktarinSibelium*Broad marketSales breakdown of XJP productPercent Other channel at city levelGDP per capita:# of county9,1993211,
8、300185,80114County is critical for broad marketDUE TO LOW INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMBURSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES, MOST PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVESInsurance coverage in Yantai & JiningFor those with insurance, they can use their personal accounts (RMB 100300 per year) to cover
9、their broad market drug expenseIn loosely controlled region (like Yantai), patients can treat the personal accounts as savings accountPatients pay on their own after the account balance is zeroA majority of population does not have insuranceThey pay broad market drugs by themselvesInsuredSelf-payTot
10、al City County Town Village 3-595-9720-3070-8010-1585-901990100Source: Interview; focus group; McKinsey analysisPATIENTS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMSSource:Interview; McKinsey analysisDriversIncreased price sensitivityChanged medical insurance policyImproved highway infrastructureRich i
11、nformation accessTVNewspaperIncreased life paceNo time to visit hospitalPharmaceutical market deregulation policyMore and more pharmacies & clinicsConveniently locatedMiddle-small hospitals find it hard to survive due to lack of patientsSevere symptomsTown hospitalMinor symptomsLargest hospitals in
12、city and countyMiddle-small hospitals in city and countyPharmacy/clinicsRural patientsCity patientsA LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES; PHARMACY CLERKS BECOME INFLUENTIAL * 40% of the patients changed their mind in pharmacySource: Interview; Focus group; McKinsey analysis“W
13、hat makes you change your perceived drugs?”* Pharmacy patient surveyPercent, Shandong city levelPerceived drug not available; persuaded by pharmacy clerkPerceived drug available but persuaded by pharmacy clerkChanged mind by myself“When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind, I just ask the pha
14、rmacy clerk to recommend. Then I will check the drugs introduction sheet, if this drug covers my disease, I will have a try” Yibin city level focus groupTotal drug sales breakdownPercent Pharmacy Hospital ClinicsOverall Motilium Gyno DaktarinSibelium XJP should design special initiatives to target p
15、harmacy channelsCLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPECIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOWSource:Interview; McKinsey analysisClinics share in total drug salesPercent Overall CountyTown Village 36%2634100SichuanShandongCity 827%8271003XJP should think about cost-effective way to lock in individual cl
16、inic/barefoot doctorsG.I. Category Review * More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies * Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising, creating brand awareness in consumersSource: Physician and pharmacy interviews; McKinsey an
17、alysisFOR GI DISFUNCTION DRUGS AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND; PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIESLatent market demand 60% of total patients do not seek any treatmentAs market leader, increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the
18、 key demand levers Small clinics and pharmacies are important channels75% of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmaciesTotal incidence Do not seek treatment Go to large hospital*Go tosmall clinicSelf medicate at pharmacySeek treatment Not awarePercentMotiliums market shareMotilium has a
19、 vast room for grow because of significant leakage along the patient flow60% of GI patients that do seek treatmentCurrent market share of 4% which could be grown furtherAmong the 40% people who seek GI treatment, about 30% would buy banded generic drugs*, while the rest would buy non-brand generic d
20、rugs1.6%FOR GI DRUGS, POLARIZATION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUSAnecdotesQuantitative examplesSub-TA sales by channelPercentSource: Hospital pharmacy interviews; retail pharmacy interviews; McKinsey analysis199719992002Retail PharmacyHospitalClinic“Unlike things in the past, patients nowadays generally t
21、ry to avoid coming to hospitals because of hospitals expensive charges. For GI disease, most people can judge by themselves. So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to buy drugs.” Qixia GI physician interview“Most GI patients are repeating patients. They know which drugs to buy, and wh
22、ere the drugs are cheap. So usually they will choose pharmacies & clinics.” Jining retail pharmacist interviewYantai199719992002Retail PharmacyHospitalClinicJiningImportance of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishingRetail pharmacy would be the major battle field for GI drugsROUGH ESTIMATIONSALES O
23、F GI DRUGS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY, WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGSPercentMotiliumWeiershu (谓尔舒)Mosapride (莫沙比利)Tidines* (替丁类药)Others*Sidashu (斯达舒)*Others including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(快胃片)、 Weifuan(w胃复安)、 Jinweixiaosh
24、ipian (健胃消食片)、999(三九胃泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒, and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs*Including Cimetadine, Ramitidine & FamotidineSource: Distributor interviews; physician interviews; patient interviews; McKinsey analysisTotal = RMB 243.05 millionVillage CountyTown City IN
25、BROAD MARKET, MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL Retail pharmacyHospitalClinicSource: Distributor interviews; hospital pharmacy interviews; retail pharmacy interviews; McKinsey analysisSales by channelMn RMB, %Motilium Sidashu (斯达舒)Weiershu (谓尔舒)Mosapride (莫沙比利)Tidines (替丁类药)
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