某咨询中国网通:战略咨询报告完整版.pptx
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1、CONTENT Key strategic principles Regulatory overview Market overview Competition overview Business models Next stepsAGENDA Business ModelsDomestic and international long-distance voiceWholesale/carrierEnterprise solutionsIssues going forwardEconomic modelingChoice of business modelsto pursue and tim
2、ingRoadmap for pursuing business models and expected financial performanceIntegrated approach to CNC business planMajorissuesExpectedoutputHow do the market sizing and share assumptions translate into overall top line revenue for CNC?What capital investments will be necessary to build out metro and
3、long haul fiber networks?Predicted cash flow profile by business model and selected scenariosAssessment of market opportunitiesHow will China datacom market develop? How large is the overall opportunity for a new entrant?Overall market sizing and revenue forecast by product areaRegulatory and compet
4、itive analysisWhat type of regulatory environment will evolve in China?Will equal access for voice and data be granted and when?What effect will WTO have?Regulatory mapping and CNC share predictions across scenariosStrategic implications and capabilities assessmentMETHODOLOGY BEING USED TO DEVELOP B
5、USINESS MODELS AND OVERALL STRATEGY- Current areas of focusCNC AT A CRITICAL STRATEGIC CROSSROADSPreliminary ConclusionsRecommendations/Decisions to be MadeOffnet VOIP predicted to generate to provide breakeven economics for building backbone1 Wholesale revenue provides significant upside potential
6、Majority of wholesale revenue relies on access to mobile carriersEnterprise solutions economics very attractive, but substantial complexity and resources involvedHigh-bandwidth international gateway critical to success in both wholesale and enterprise Economic predictions highly sensitive to a set o
7、f key assumptionsAccelerate vendor selection and backbone construction; time to market criticalCommitment to utilizing IP/DWDM invlolves risk to mobile carrier business RFP to vendors should be based on product requirements vs. technologyStaging of investments and service launch must consider tradeo
8、ff between quality of service and coveragePreliminary talks with international carriers should begin ASAPScenario modeling will help us decide where to focusOverarching question: Can CNC successfully pursue all opportunities outlined in the short/medium term? (1) Assuming settlement fees of 10% of r
9、evenue Overall approach Where HowBUSINESS MODELS SUMMARY: THREE CORE ELEMENTS Enterprise Solutions Capture datacom growth in key business centers with leading-edge products and superior customer service Top business districts in major urban areas; only the most dense areas in short term Focused Depl
10、oyment Leverage existing conduits to lay in major urban areasSuperior service and bandwidth Target CTs weakness in service and bandwidth Utilize LMDS in intermediate cities and areas where time to market is critical Wholesale/Carrier Target mobile carriers and ISPs with backbone transport; consider
11、supplying fixed-line incumbents Cover POPs in all major calling zones; develop local leased lines network in key locations Aggressive deployment of backbone infrastructure to provide unparalleled bandwidth Establish high bandwidth international gateway to differentiate internet access Superior servi
12、ce with clear positioning “The clear alternative to CT”ISP Long distance voice Capture early revenue from to fund development of subsequent business models Top 60 POPs by end of year 2000 utilizing mix of leased lines from CT and CNC network Position offnet voice as first product from “Chinas first
13、datacom carrier” Do not overextend resources in VOIP as it does not fit CNCs long term strategy Create “dial-around” solutions for business and interconnect terms- 17930 -Enterprise solutionsPOTENTIAL BUSINESS MODELS COVER WIDE RANGE OF PRODUCT/MARKET ALTERNATIVESOpportunity for growthCurrent market
14、 sizeWholesale/carrierConsumer ISP?Domestic and International Long Distance VoiceResidentialMed/large enterprise customersCarriersPotential traffic per consumerProductsEmerging datacomDataVoiceEmerging data nicheAGENDA Business ModelsDomestic and international long-distance voiceWholesale/carrierEnt
15、erprise solutionsIssues going forwardAPPROACH TO DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL VOICE BUSINESS MODELObjectivesHypothesized ApproachCapture early revenue from launch of prepaid IP calling cards “Cash cow” for funding other business model developmentPursue prefix and equal access long distance for busines
16、s customers as soon as possible to begin establishing relationshipsManage pricing and product life cycle effectively to maximize total margin and avoid investing in declining productsDo not overextend ourselves nor blur our “datacom” imageFight the regulatory battle to ensure favorable approaches to
17、 equal access and interconnectMarket calling cards to business customers in the short term for travelling personnelEmphasize quality image/brand to distinguish from CT and Unicom-position calling card as first step in becoming a next generation full services providerEstablish mechanisms to link mark
18、eting expenditures with revenue and margin growth by product to ensure effective investmentEmphasize low cost targeted marketing and loyalty programsDo not overextendAlways emphasize advanced technology and evolution to full services provisionDOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL VOICE SUMMARYPreliminary Econo
19、micsPhase I CapEx (2000,2001): 3.8 B RMB Fiber/construction: 2.4 B RMB IP/DWDM equipment: 720 M RMB POP/VOIP: 530 M RMB OSS/Network management system: 100 M RMBOpEx expected to be 30% of revenue by 2002Market share and revenue estimates - 2002 Offnet DLD: 30% Offnet ILD: 30% $2 B RMB IP Intl. termin
20、ation: 27%5 year NPV: Essentially breakeven considering offnet voice alone1Key Issues to be AddressedInterconnect agreements with local PTAs; attempt to obtain blanket policy from MII International gateway license and connectivitySettlement charges commensurate with VOIP pricingDevelopment of busine
21、ss offnet strategy Scalable “dial-around” solutions in short term Equal access longer termQuality of service for voice, must approach switched quality rapidlyPoint of diminishing returns for adding VOIP gateways vs. strategic value of providing coverage(1) Highly sensitive to settlement feesLARGE MA
22、RKET WITH POTENTIAL TO GAIN SHARE QUICKLYNew entrants typically gain share quicklyExample: IDD and DLD servicesMarket sizeable - off-net traffic accounts for 15% of total DLD/ILD revenue by 2004Source: China Telecom annual reports; CNCs team inputs; BCG surveys, analysis & benchmarkingYear after ent
23、ryOptus (DLD)Tele 2 (DLD)Mercury(DLD)Hong Kong (IDD)Japan (IDD)US (IDD)(RMB BN)DLD On-NetDLD Off-NetILD On-NetILD Off-Net(%)CAREFUL MANAGEMENT OF PRE-PAID CALLING CARD BUSINESS NECESSARY TO ALIGN WITH LONG TERM STRATEGY Prepaid calling cards call for different capability set and target customers tha
24、n longer term business modelsFocus on consumers will not complement long term vision of providing enterprise solutionsMass advertising and marketing around a low-cost position may not fit image required for future needs Three factors important to consider in managing prepaid calling card businessAtt
25、empt to position cards in marketing messages as the first product from a company that is building the most advanced network in PRCConsider selling cards to businesses for their traveling personnel to begin establishing enterprise relationshipsCarefully manage product life cycle to begin pulling back
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